As far as the most likely areas to experience an impact, I feel that the Florida peninsula will once again be in the crosshairs for Caribbean-origin systems tracking up across Cuba into southwest Florida and/or the Keys from the south, and for tropical cyclones developing in the SW Atlantic riding the underbelly of the Bermuda high coming in from the SE or east into the state’s east coast, primarily south of the Cape. In June.July and/or early August there may be one or two systems well out in the open Atlantic that generate decent surf and never impact land. I believe most of the activity will occur during the historical heart of hurricane season- the 3rd week of August through first 3 weeks of September (centered around Labor Day) instead of last year’s flurry of late activity when Ian and Nicole assaulted both coasts of the Florida peninsula at the end of September and in early November. Personally, I believe 2023 will have numbers similar to or slightly above last season’s near normal 14/8/2. Stay tuned and watch this space for fresh prognostication! Will update and extend the 7-day forecast through the 4th of July as new data arrives. “The latest run of the GFS model slows the remnant low with minor restrengthening mid-week near Bermuda, reducing the likelihood of a resurgence in long period swell during the remainder of the work week. There is model uncertainty whether pot Cindy’s remnant low will re-generate as a non-tropical low in the Atlantic mid-week given less supportive SST’s as the weak circulation approaches Bermuda. SATURDAY(1July): In the absence of activity in the Atlantic, surf conditions probably dropping back to the typical summer doldrums.įorecast Model Analysis, Tropical Weather Discussion & Extended Outlook (7-14 Days)īoth tropical storms fizzled after enhancing the ESE trade wind fetch with a modest-size long period swell component before they weakened. THURSDAY: Lingering swell depends on whether post-Cindy re-generates into a hybrid gale in the Atlantic as it passes Bermuda mid-week. WEDNESDAY(28June): Wind light offshore in the morning, becoming onshore in the afternoon with waves waves 1-occ 1.5′ ( occ/inc+ early am) in moderate to occ/inc longer period (8-occ 9 sec) east mix swell. TUESDAY: Wind light WSW in the morning becoming onshore in the afternoon with waves 1-1.5′ (occ+ am) in moderate (7 sec) to occ long period (10 sec) ESE swell. MONDAY: Wind SW 5-12 mph in the morning, becoming S/SE 8-15 mph in the afternoon with waves 1-occ 2′ in long period (11 sec) ESE ground swell, with consistency/size best late morning/early afternoon on the incoming tide. Consequently, the 4-7 day portion of the surf forecast is subject to change (even radically up or down) with each model run, and consequently should be taken with a grain (or two) of salt…Ĭoastal Weather Discussion for NE Florida ( often edited by Dean) ( Please note the following disclaimer): The 1-3 day portion of the surf forecast is updated/extended each morning following the latest local and short-term marine weather analysis, then tweaked a bit based on daily analysis of the freshest 6-hour forecast model run illustrating the evolution of wave-generating weather systems in the Atlantic Ocean. The following surf forecast is based on a range of the average height of the highest one third of breaking waves, along with the occasional height of the average highest ten percent of the waves. Skateboard Videos & Photos Skateboarding photos & videos.Surf Shop News Rumblings throughout the stores of Surf Station.Product Reviews Reviews on products we carry in our online store.
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